As we move further into 2026, markets are making it clear that this is shaping up to be a year of volatility, nuance, and rapid change, rather than big, one-directional moves. Global events, commodity prices, mixed economic data, and accelerating technology are all influencing mortgage rates and borrower expectations at the same time

Market Update: Venezuela, Oil, and Why It Matters

Recent developments in Venezuela have added another variable to global markets, mainly through oil prices and inflation expectations.

Venezuela holds some of the world’s largest proven oil reserves, but production has been held back for years due to political instability and underinvestment. While any meaningful increase in supply would take years, markets tend to react long before actual barrels come online.

The result so far has been renewed volatility in oil prices, with crude trading softer as investors price in the possibility of future supply. Lower oil prices are generally considered disinflationary, they reduce pressure on transportation, production, and consumer prices, which tends to support bond markets.

For Canada, this matters because:

  • Oil prices heavily influence inflation expectations
  • Softer oil can weigh on the Canadian dollar and growth outlook
  • Lower inflation pressure usually helps cap bond yields, which supports fixed mortgage rates

Markets currently appear to see Venezuela as a medium-term supply story, not an immediate disruption. That’s why bond yields have drifted modestly lower rather than spiking.

Economic Data: Mixed Signals, No Clear Direction

Economic data continues to pull in both directions.

In Canada, recent employment and business activity data has moved back into expansion territory, suggesting the economy still has momentum. In the U.S., service-sector activity remains strong, even as manufacturing softens. Labour markets are cooling, but not sharply enough to signal a downturn.

This creates a push and pull:

  • Cooling growth and softer oil support lower yields
  • Resilient economic activity limits how far yields can fall

For now, markets are not pricing in near-term rate cuts, and central banks appear comfortable waiting for clearer evidence.

What this means for mortgage rates:
Fixed rates may move around more week to week, but without a clear break in inflation or employment data, they are likely to remain range-bound, rather than trending sharply higher or lower in the near term.

What We’re Watching Closely

As the quarter unfolds, key drivers will include:

  • Canadian and U.S. employment data
  • Ongoing geopolitical developments and energy prices
  • Commodity trends beyond oil, especially copper, which often signals global growth
  • Any regulatory updates on mortgage qualification rules

In the short term, these forces are likely to influence fixed rates more than any single central bank announcement.

Industry Update: Underwriting & Technology in 2026

Behind the scenes, the mortgage process itself is changing quickly.

Many lenders are expanding automated underwriting systems that can issue rapid decisions for straightforward, prime files. Some lenders are already using these tools on live applications, and more are expected to follow this year.

In practice:

  • Clean, salaried, prime deals will move faster
  • The gap between “simple” and “complex” files will widen
  • Human underwriters aren’t disappearing, they’re shifting focus to exceptions, nuance, and risk

This reinforces the value of broker expertise: knowing when automation works well and when a file needs thoughtful structuring.

Speed Is Becoming the Expectation

Borrowers are increasingly exposed to digital lenders promising near-instant answers. While speed doesn’t always mean certainty, it does shape expectations.

What used to feel fast, a 48-hour turnaround, may soon feel slow to some clients. Clear communication is critical, especially around the difference between:

  • a quick algorithm-based approval, and
  • a fully vetted, reliable mortgage solution

Borrower Behaviour & Marketing in the AI Age

As more borrowers turn to AI tools and conversational search, credibility matters more than tactics.

What’s working:

  • Strong local reputations
  • Clear niches and real expertise
  • Reviews, case studies, and real-world examples
  • Community involvement and visibility

Generic messaging and broad claims are losing ground. Being known for something specific builds trust, with clients and increasingly with the tools they’re using to research their options.

The Big Picture

Early 2026 is shaping up to be less about dramatic rate moves and more about volatility, adaptability, and expectation management, both in markets and in mortgage processing.

Brokers who thrive this year will be the ones who:

  • understand where automation helps, and where it doesn’t
  • set realistic expectations around speed versus certainty
  • lean into expertise, clarity, and trust